A NEW LOOK AT FLOOD RISK DETERMINATION1

ABSTRACT: The probability distributions of annual peak flows used in flood risk analysis quantify the risk that a design flood will be exceeded. But the parameters of these distributions are themselves to a degree uncertain and this uncertainty increases the risk that the flood protection provided will in fact prove to be inadequate. The increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is small when a fairly long record of data is available and the annual flood peaks are serially independent, which is the standard assumption in flood frequency analysis. But standard tests for serial independence are insensitive to the type of grouping of high and low values in a time series, which is measured by the Hurst coefficient. This grouping increases the parameter uncertainty considerably. A study of 49 annual peak flow series for Canadian rivers shows that many have a high Hurst coefficient. The corresponding increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is shown to be substantial even for rivers with a long record, and therefore should not be neglected. The paper presents a method of rationally combining parameter uncertainty due to serial correlation, and the stochastic variability of peak flows in a single risk assessment. In addition, a relatively simple time series model that is capable of reproducing the observed serial correlation of flood peaks is presented.     

贵州省自然灾害区域分异规律及分析方法研究

贵州省自然灾害严重，且种类多，区域差异明显。为了分析自然灾害区域分异规律，本文提出了灾害模数、灾害区域差异系数等概念，编制了贵州省灾害等级图。     

ALTERNATIVES TO THE USE OF AGRICULTURAL DRAINAGE WELLS1

ABSTRACT: A large number of agricultural drainage wells (ADWs) are located in north-central Iowa. These wells permit sediments, pesticides, nitrate, and bacteria in surface and subsurface drainage water to enter regional aquifers that are currently being used for drinking-water supplies, mostly by rural families and communities. This paper reports some possible alternatives to control the entry of surface and subsurface drainage waters into groundwater systems, and describes a methodology to make comprehensive economic feasibility studies of alternative drainage outlets. The estimated cost of providing main subsurface drains varied from $220 to $960 per hectare. If the use of ADWs was completely eliminated without providing alternative drainage, it is estimated that the average annual loss to the farmers of the area would be at least $270 per hectare in reduced crop yields. Of course, losses would be weather dependent and highly variable. Management practices to reduce the pollutant load in water draining to ADWs are also discussed.     

Environmental performance of urban roadside traders in Jos,Nigeria

In the last ten years official location policy in Nigeria for urban roadside traders, an enterprising group of urban poor operating at the lowest level of the informal sector of the economy has been very negative. Government believes that they should be removed from the streets and tucked away in obscure locations because of their tendency to deface the streets with litter and for causing vehicular and pedestrian traffic congestion. This paper identifies and assesses the magnitude of pollution created by the traders as a prelude to evolving a planning policy and strategy for regulating and formally accommodating street traders in good locations while still ensuring good environmental quality.     

砂土与EPS颗粒混合的轻质土(LSES)临界循环应力比的试验研究

循环荷载下,砂土与EPS颗粒混合的轻质土(LSES)存在临界循环应力比Sth,将割线弹性模量衰减系数δ与循环次数的关系曲线能保持平缓的最大循环应力比定义为Sth,它是结构稳定与破坏两种状态的界限指标,根据动三轴试验结果,认为影响Sth的主要因素有围压、水泥掺量和EPS颗粒含量。一般来说,水泥掺量的增加、围压和EPS颗粒含量的减小均会提高Sth,但由于高围压下的结构重塑,水泥掺量低且EPS颗粒含量高的试样的Sth表现出一些不同的性状。     

潮湿巷道风流温度与湿度变化规律分析

通过对矿井风流与围岩热湿交换理论的研究,提出理论上更可靠的风流温、湿度计算方法,编制了模拟解算矿井风流与围岩热湿交换的计算机程序,解算出潮湿巷道风流温度及湿度的变化规律,并分析通风时间、湿度系数等参数对风流温度及湿度变化规律的影响;沿风流流动方向,风流温度及湿度不断增加;巷道风流温度及湿度随着通风时间的增加而不断减小,通风时间越长减小的幅度越小;围岩壁面湿度系数对风流温度及湿度的影响较大,其他参数不变时,壁面湿度系数越大,风流温度越小,风流湿度越大。     

基于事故理论的城市轨道交通风险评价模型研究

笔者分析了城市轨道交通事故,在分析我国其他行业事故分类的基础上,确定城市轨道交通事故分类标准,即重大事故、大事故、险性事故和一般事故,并将不同事故分类情况及专家判断评分,按事故的大小不同换算成可以计算的计算尺度,根据事故种类不同计算出事故折算因子,根据风险理论的评价方法,建立了地铁风险评价模型,对地铁的危险性进行量化定级,并通过具体实例进行综合分析评价,该风险评价模型具有一定的工程意义。     

水环境质量评价3种方法的应用对比

从众多水质评价方法中选取单项指数法、加权均值型指数法、模糊数学法进行介绍,并通过运用这3种方法对大汶河某年监测数据的平均值进行评价.经对比分析发现,加权均值型指数法是一种比较实用的水质评价方法,模糊数学法可以作为必要的补充.     

中国区域创新能力差异变动实证分析

区域创新能力是决定区域经济发展水平和经济增长实力的关键,在建设"创新型国家"的战略背景下,各省市越来越注重区域创新能力的建设。区域创新能力作为一个动态的发展过程,其差异在不断变化,差异可能扩大也可能缩小,区域创新能力的差异性及随时间的波动性对政府相关管理部门的决策具有重要影响。本文以发明专利申请量和大中型工业企业新产品产值衡量区域创新能力,运用Theil系数模型测算了1990-2008年间我国发明专利申请量和大中型工业企业新产品产值的区域差异变动情况。结果发现:发明专利申请量区域差异变动呈现S型曲线;大中型工业企业新产品产值区域差异变动呈现近似倒U型曲线;区间差异和东部地区内部差异在总差异中占主导地位。在此基础上,本文进一步提出了缩小我国区域创新能力差异的针对性政策建议。     

Study On the Hydraulic Characteristics of Taichung Harbour in Taiwan

For this study, field measurements of current profiles, buoy trajectories and the lag of two tidal stations were performed to explore the flow characteristics of Taichung Harbour. in order to distinguish the effects of wind drift current on circulation inside Taichung Harbour, field surveys during both summer and monsoon (winter) season were completed separately. the speed of the drift current was about 3.5% that of the, wind speed, based on the field data. the horizontal dispersion coefficients were close to Bowden's (1965) formula for the tidal current. the water temperature showed a two-layer profile, with the mixing thickness about 4 to 6 metres for the upper layer. the corresponding Richardson number was about 70. the tidal lag between the two tidal stations was 9.68 minutes. All the results agree well with the theoretical results.